Genetics lottery

Covid19 vaccination is crucial. But we are living right now a "genetics lottery" that will affect it. As the virus spreads and takes root in hundreds of million of people around the world, it mutates. This is a normal and expected process. Those mutations will result in variants. And variants can be more or less aggressive for the human being. At the same time these variations occur, they also compete between themselves - for dominance of the habitat they are spreading on. And that is the human species (and probably a few more as well).

Now, we can't determine which variants will endure for a few days, become extinct or dominant. But these mutations mean risk. Because there is the probability (High? Low? No idea...) that a significantly different and more aggressive variant of Covid19 takes root and becomes dominant (or near-dominant) - one that is sufficiently different from the original ones so that it takes a significant toll in the immunization ability of currently available vaccines. And so, to render them less efficient - and a less powerful weapon in fighting and containing the virus.

It must be said that 90% efficacy from some of those vaccines is an amazing figure. And one that builds confidence on their ability to still fight the virus, even if some of their efficacy is lost (a vaccine is considered a top performer if it provides 70%+ of immunization) - there is a "cushion", so to say. 

But the risk is still there. And it probably is what prompted the late messages for the UK scientific body (warning that British should not go on holidays abroad this summer, even if vaccinated) and Dr Faucci (vaccinated, but still wearing double-masks). All in all, this risk means that even with the vaccines, there is a high probability that the Covid19 pandemic and crisis will not stop in 2021 - but will endure at least throughout the 2022 winter. Fingers crossed it won't.

Now, let me just say something else. The opposite (positive) risk also exists. That in this genetics lottery, a different, less aggressive (for the human body) variant prevails - and that would be amazing news.