Refugees

I will never understand a world that beats up a doctor to prevent him from selling sunglasses in a train station. The same world that pushed that doctor away from home and into selling those glasses, fleeing from war, corruption, misery. The world is far from a Paretto efficiency, and it should be our responsibility to improve it, maximizing every single person's potential and recognizing they are human beings

Is the European Left focusing on the right battle?

Over the past few years i have seen a striking silence over one of the biggest changes the world is seeing.

Over the past decade, the weight of Labour in countries' income has been shrinking considerably, while Capital has been gaining steady ground. And this under a complete silence from the educated european left (not Syriza and Podemos, but the socially educated left that is the backbone of Europe's social status and welfare state) that prefers to focus on Greece's debt (mainly caused by a poor economic management from the country at micro and macro-economical levels).

This is a global trend, let's be honest. The world global population still grows faster than global gdp, and this drives a Supply surplus on the economy, that tends to be compensated by Labour costs. Not even the fact we currently claim we are in a talent economy disguises it - that is true for a short number of professions (IT engineers are typically the best example) and countries (niches in south-east asia, africa...), but not for the whole population that fits in Labour extensive production networks).

But the silence that we all hear on this subject is deafining. Instead of renewing their approach to focus on salary gains indexed to productivity gains, we all tend to focus on less working hours, high pensions or fixed salaries - that are impossible to bear on the long term. And this puts in an extra weight on the global economy, that depends greatly on the economical power of the masses for Consumption.

Enviado do meu iPhone

A great article about poverty

http://observador.pt/opiniao/pobreza-tenham-decencia-nem-sabem-que-estao-falar/

2014 CO2 evolution in EU

The European Union has managed to cut CO2 emissions by -5.4%, in which is a huge hope signal to the world in terms of climate changes limitation. But EU is not alone in the World, and if the USA speech is increasingly moving in the right direction, China and India's (that, together, comprise 37% of world's population) is not. The focus of these tow nations should not be to have a modernization plan whose energy side replicates the XIX and XX centuries ones from EU and the USA, it should be to enhance the existing and short-term coming technologies to speed development in a cleaner, more efficient way.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/07/asia/india-climate-coal-power/index.html

A footballer's view of Brussels

An amazing statement from Vincent Kompany, the captain of the Belgium Football National team - an incredibly straightforward and balanced view of what happened in Paris and Brussels, and why integration respecting cultural diversity is a fundamental value of democracy and development.

"The real wealth of a nation is diversity of cultures", as he quotes a subway graffitti. 

Read the full article in http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/26/sport/paris-attacks-vincent-kompany-football/index.html

P.S- And, sometimes, there are still people who see these new star athletes and dumb people that were only naturally gifted to play a physical sport...

A balanced view on how to thwart ISIS

I never heard of Joe Parini before, but I must say I agree with this article in CNN -  http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/16/opinions/parini-paris-and-history/index.html

Lars Sorensen - Top CEO of 2015, according to HBR

- "I've been part of some of the most stupid mistakes"

- "If we end up curing diabetes, and it destroys a big part of our business, we can be proud, and you can get a job anywhere. We'll have worked on the greatest social service of any pharmaceutical company, and that would be a phenomenal thing"

- "It's to our advantage to have high-quality generic products (...) for countries and populations that can't afford most advanced products"

- "Our philosophy is that corporate social responsibility is nothing but maximizing the value of your company over a long period of time, because in the long term, social and environmental issues become financial issues"

- "When we make decisions, the employees should be part of the journey and should know they're not just filling my pockets. And even though I'm one of the lowest paid people in your whole cohort, I still earn more in a year than a blue-collar worker makes in his lifetime"

- "It is easier to lead when the pay gap between the CEO and workers is smaller."

- "There is nothing more motivating for people than to go to work and save people's lives"

The present in the words of Indra Nooyi

"Every morning you have got to wake up with a healthy fear that the world is changing, and a conviction that, to win, you have to change faster and be more agile than anyone else"

Cutting bank reserves to stop a bubble burst is dangerous

Because it fuels investment by making money easily available. Now, that is exactly what the Chinese government wants, as it tries to smooth the current stock market bubble burst. And I would say that is ok - but it can also be dangerous if this stimulus is not temporary (and we have seen how addicted to growth China is). Because with more money at hand, banks will do good and bad investment, with lower returns (like the big "ghost towns and malls" in China). And that can mean the Chinese banks will then bubble on their own and generate a burst like we have seen in the west from 2008 to very recently.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/25/investing/china-stock-market/index.html

There is nothing wrong with state controled capitalism...

I always said that economic long-term oriented social-democratic liberalism (with regulation favoring free market and protecting key areas that should remain under the sovereign eye of the state, and, additionally, free access to information and the power to do one's choices) is the perfect complement for a democracy, because it empowers citizens on their future. But some people argued that there was nothing wrong with China's stance on economics being dictated by the Government - now, after months of confusing messages, trying to cover the basics (a big market bubble in many sectors, powered by over optimistic projections), some investors are even being barred from selling stock positions they believe are over-valued. Capitalism needs a free democracy and free access to information to thrive. Easy.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/23/investing/world-stock-markets/index.html

Paretto refugees

I will never understand a world that beats up a doctor to prevent him from selling sunglasses in a train station. The same world that pushed that doctor away from home and into selling those glasses, fleeing from war, corruption, misery. The world is far from a Paretto efficiency, and it should be our responsibility to improve it, maximizing every single person's potential and recognizing them as human beings.

A usual behavior when high currency devaluation is feared

It happened exactly the same in Argentina, during the 2000's crisis. People would opt to spend their money on luxury or durable goods, in order to secure the value of their current savings, instead of keeping it and face a possible massive devaluation. Businesses typically also do the same in these circumstances, opting to stock goods instead of keeping liquidity, for the same reason - securing the value of the money they have.

http://www.publico.pt/mundo/noticia/mas-vale-um-anel-no-bolso-do-que-muitas-notas-a-voar-1702262

Brewing the perfect storm

Massively injecting money in the economy and cutting interest rates to prevent an already over-heated market to auto-correct is like brewing the perfect storm for an economy. Now, you do that on the third biggest economy in the world (I am considering the Eurozone as the first one, though most of the people would dispute me) and you are creating a really big global bomb. Let's see if China can come out of this one.

A spot on analysis on the Portuguese situation and what structural reforms still need to be done

From Augusto Mateus, former Economy Minister.

http://observador.pt/especiais/augusto-mateus-o-euro-criou-a-ilusao-de-que-um-pais-pequenito-podia-passar-despercebido/

2 great articles about the rising inequality between Labour and Capital

Harvard Business Review published a very good and well thought sequence of two articles, the first dedicated to robots and their impact in productivity and Labour and the second on the rising inequality we are seeing everywhere in the world, as wealth created by Labour decreases vs the importance of Capital revenues. Both of them are amazing articles on their own, but, as soon as you realize in the second technology might actually be the rising force between the divergence of Labour and Capital, than, their combination becomes especially powerful. A must read!

Our lifes depend so much on where we were born

Some very interesting thoughts of Polman on compensation and values

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-leadership/wp/2015/05/21/the-tao-of-paul-polman/

When is too much really too much? And the overweight of the financial sector in the economy

I think this article that summarizes Cecchetti's main idea that the financial sector may be currently too big for the current economic models is a good read - I really recommend it, especially as the plumbing analogy really helps one to understand the problem.

Is the European Left focusing on the right battle?

Over the past few years I have seen a striking silence over one of the biggest changes the world is seeing.

Over the last decade, the weight of Labour in countries' income has been shrinking considerably, while Capital has been gaining steady ground. And this under a complete silence from the educated European Left (not Syriza and Podemos, but the socially educated Left that is the backbone of Europe's social status and welfare state) that prefers to focus on Greece's debts (mainly caused by a poor economic management from the country at micro and macro-economical levels).

This is a global trend, let's be honest. The world global population still grows faster than global GDP, and that drives a Supply surplus on the economy, that tends to be compensated by Labour costs. Not even the fact we currently claim we are in a talent economy disguises it - that is true for a short number of professionals (IT engineers are typically the best example) and countries (niches in South-East Asia, Africa,...), but not for the whole population that fits in Labour extensive production networks.

But the silence that we all hear on this subject is deafening. Instead of renewing its approach to focus on salary gains indexed to productivity gains, the European Left tends to focus on less working hours, high pensions or fixed salaries - that are impossible to bear on the long term. And this puts in an extra weight on the global economy, that depends greatly on the economical power of the masses for Consumption. 

Be independent

"If a country really wants to be independent, it should avoid debts". This sentence is from a Spanish economist, quoted in this article from Jorge Almeida Fernandes. From my end, it seems a great principle.

And it is even more painful when those debts are incurred, not for growth related projects, that would generate higher income for a country, but just to face current expenses, due to the inability to control them.

Education is the greatest social equalizer

It equalizes society by giving everyone the right to ascend socially, to build a better life and future for himself and others. Like this story shows.

China - I agree with Krugman

Paul Krugman says that China keeps him up at night, pointing a number of reasons for that:

1) The need to transition from an investment to a consumption economy, and how difficult that will be

2) A shrinking work force - to which I would add its low qualification

3) And poor quality of data


To these, though, I would add just 2 more:

4) Low return on investment in many of Chinese investments, that are poorly linked to an effective economy. Let's just think about the huge amounts that are being spent on real estate projects that are then left empty or on the incredible percentage (30%?) of wind power generators that are not connected to the electric grid.

5) The rigid and extremely uncertain ability of the current Governmental regime to actually manage the transition from a capital extensive economy to an intensive, imaginative one.


Yep. China also keeps me up at night.

Elite

A world in which a elite possesses more than 50% of the wealth and dictates norms and laws to 100% of it is a nightmare that we should all the be fighting hard. Even that elite should be massively worried about it - this situation is not sustainable and will lead to a social rupture, in which everyone will lose too much. The clock is ticking.

3D printing & copyright

The predictions that 3D printing will disrupt the economy are not new. Typically, they focus on the shift of manufacture from lower production costs' countries to anyone who owns a 3D printer and knows how to operate it. Everybody could do their own objects, based on files it would upload to its 3D printer.

Now, this poses a different question - how was that file acquired. And it is here that the play will be over the next 2 years. The strength of copyright will play a key role in the 3D printing industry, as file ownership and availability to use will be central. If the industry can own files (and prevent their usage from anyone who didn't buy them), then a market will arise on objects blue-prints - and probably Apple, Google, Amazon and Alibaba, who operate major digital stores will dominate the industry especially after an initial period where hardware development will still be the focus. Now, if such a copyright strength is not enforced in the files themselves, the industry will be mainly a hardware oriented one.

This will have major implications and is not a straight forward play. Just think about points such as files' standards development (remember the VHS vs Beta fight?), hacking (just think about the European countries where political parties advocating the free usage of entertainment files, like movies and music, and their role on this ground) and personal creativity. This will be an incredibly interesting market to look at over the next 2 years. Stay tuned!