Russian debt

Seeing the extent Russia is issuing debt to increase its military spending, it is impossible not to imagine how pleased China and India must be.

8000000000

 We are now 8 billion humans living on planet Earth.

Tories

Dear Tories, I have a crazy idea. What if you would just call the People to cast their vote and choose their new government?

Please and thank you

You say "please" and "thank you". And you are nice. And you always do it because this is the right way to behave to other people.

But the truth is more complex. You are also what your brain hears. So, being polite is not only about your effect on others - it is also about the effect on yourself.

A pillard of democracy

 Social Mobility. Three steps for it. Article in Portuguese, from Carlos Guimarães Pinto. 

Walk tall

This guy is a football player. He plays in the Champions League, as goalkeeper for Sporting Portugal. He did three really big mistakes (blunders, really) on a very important match - and they had big negative consequences for his team.

But he still:
- walks to the press interview at the end of the match, not hiding behind anyone else ( - confidence);
- owns up to his mistakes publicly (it was not the pitch, the floodlights, his team mates) (- ownership and example);
- focuses on the future (- commitment and improvement)

This is a guy that will learn from what he did wrong. And that thus will be even better in the time to come - and will inspire his team.

If you have someone like him in your team, keep him.

Civic Apathy

 Carlos Moedas' speech today, on Portugal's Republic Day, was right on spot - he called out the "civic apathy" that endangers growth and development. Let his words strike home on millions of Portuguese people and urge them to action.

+40%

Economist Ricardo Reis: “Portugal has not grown for 22 years. It is impossible for someone of responsibility not to think that reform is necessary.

Full article (in Portuguese).

Thank you, Mr Gorbachev

One of the greatest legacies from Gorbachev? The end of the permanent terror of a global nuclear war. From the 60s to the 80s, this was a real and palpable threat, a fear you could feel, a permanent pessimism. The glasnost and perestroika eased that terror away.

Focus and patience

Focus and patience.

In my opinion, those are primary soft skills for the next 30 years. In a world that is dominated by multiple stimuli with immediate rewards associated (that compress our average attention span to less than 7 seconds), it will be the ability to concentrate on tasks and plan+wait for greater rewards over time that will drive differential success.

Years

In 1856, the average British worker (by far, the wealthiest labor class in Europe at the time) worked 124000 hours across its lifetime. In 1981, it worked only for 69000 hours - which means that despite the career length staying the same (around 40 years), the fraction of working hours / lifetime decreased from 50% to 20%. These are the conclusions of a paper published on "The Rockefeller University".

These are the long-term benefits of a society engineered towards innovation through liberalism and capitalism.

Extreme poverty

Every single time someone questions you about Capitalism, you can show them this graph. It was the adoption of liberal, democratic and capitalist societies that fostered innovation and wealth creation that enabled this graphic. (image from "Factfulness", by Hans Rosling).

The three biggest challenges for Portugal

 1) Climate change (drought and water scarcity, agriculture, energy,...); 2) steep aging of the Portuguese population; 3) Functionally bankrupt State.

For me, these are the three biggest challenges (priority between the three of them is up to debate, in my opinion) for Portugal for the next 20 years. 

"You do like meetings"

"You do like meetings" someone told me. And that's right. I do! I do love short 15-minutes meetings, with a well defined agenda, 5 persons tops (2 pizzas rule...) and clear decisions to be taken. I think they are an incredible and efficient way to reach decisions, align actions and bring commitment from everyone involved - and thus to move things forward.

(1hr, unfocused meetings? Rule me out, please)

Inflation

One of the biggest challenges for the next few years lies in that my generation of managers has no experience leading with inflation. We only know it from books and memories from when we were children and didn't lead economic decisions. We will learn the hard way.

Crumbling

The Portuguese NHS falling apart. Lisbon's airport (key in an economy that relies heavily on tourism exports) collapsing. Civil servants (including the ones working for public companies and the ones on a non-permanent contract) weighting too much for the Portuguese economy (while not guaranteeing minimum quality of service standards). The Administrative System falling apart. 

Portugal clearly lacks decision making at Government level. And it also lacks an educated People that demands more. That needs to be more incisive at electoral times (and others).

Starting points

"For the others, we just create starting points". I am not sure if Simone de Beauvoir wrote this on a positive note. But for me, it is as such - every single person we meet is an opportunity. For cooperation, creation, learning, memories, relationships, conversations. Remember you can't make a first impression twice, and let it unroll from there.

War in Ukraine

It's the 10th of June, and Russia is still invading Ukraine. We should remember it everyday.

Decision making

Decision. Decision-making. Well, actually decision-making timing. There's an art! The art of judging between different kinds of information, the data that is important from the irrelevant one, the good and trusty info from the confusing or just wrong. But especially, the art of judging how much information one needs to make a decision and be comfortable with it, balancing time vs risk.

From my experience, the great leaders are not the ones who always make the right decisions. The great leaders are the ones that make decisions at the right moment, and that then make those decisions work as they planned.

That's why

And that's exactly why Finland joins NATO - to keep the freedom to decide on its future.

Lessons

 If one is good at taking (painful) lessons and learning from them, than one could argue it is better to do mistakes early in life than later. Early mistakes typically have a lower cost and one has a longer period to enjoy the benefits of the lessons learned. And it might be one would do that mistake anyway, so… maybe the sooner the better?

The big caveat here is right at the beginning. “If one is good at taking lessons and learning from them”. How is each one of us engineered to learn from our mistakes and keep on getting better? If you want to constantly improve, then keep this under check, please.

Labour day

In this 1st of May, maybe it would be a good idea to study how the Labor Union movement was and is harmed by its association to a totalitarian and impoverishment movement like communism. 

Biden

Joe Biden, elected to be a transitional President, is on the verge of going down in the History books (and, until now, for good reasons). 

Rancor

There are some people... I believe that... There are some good people, they are genuinely good, they care about others and they want a better world. They don't think so much about themselves, they really care about other people and the world. They are intelligent, educated. But they are unable to act at the scale they believe they should to solve the society / global problems they see. They start deeming that anything they can and will do won't work. The problems are too big, bad people and inertia are against them. So, they feel powerless. And these good people, they start feeling rancor, a grudge against society that slowly, but surely, poisons them from the inside. They are not violent, they don't do wrong things, they don't let go. And so, this rancor poison spreads. And starts bittering them. And their relationships. And their life. And so, good people, genuinely good people, turn bitter and full of violence. 

Popper

"Ignorance is not a simple lack of knowledge but an active aversion to knowledge, the refusal to know" - Karl Popper

Can Portugal just try this radical new idea called growth?

Cavaco Silva writes another quite frontal article about the future of the Portuguese. It is absolutely clear, but I must say I am already having enough of reading the same stuff from him - can we just do as he says to shut him up once and for all? Maybe this radical idea of him that Portugal should grow its economy is not that bad?

Shanghai lockdown

Two weeks already under lockdown. The hard way for 25 million inhabitants - people can't get out of their places, no deliveries, no shopping. Government officials knock on your door and deliver some food - if you are lucky, maybe enough for a few days. Regular standing on long queues to be covid tested by Hazmat wearing nurses. No end on sight.

We looked to the side

Chechenya. Georgia. Syria. MH17. Donbass. And we all looked to the side.

Free press

War in Ukraine has reinforced a powerful idea. The importance of free press. Let me get down on one knee and thank all the people that went there (wherever that is), so we could know. Thank you.

Air conditioning

"Do you prefer peace or air conditioning on? That's the question we should ask ourself" - Mario Draghi

What it means to be occupied by Russian troops. - by Der Spiegel

 Link here. 

Colorado

The Colorado river, one of the largest in North America, that drilled (and drills) the Grand Canyon, can't make it anymore to its mouth on the Gulf of California. The majority of its water is used on desert-settled cities, like Las Vegas, and intensive farming in an arid climate. 

The one who disagrees

One of the most important persons in your team is the one who disagrees, who challenges, who doesn't take what you say as an absolute truth.

That's a person that is typically missing in the teams of dictators. Surrounded by "yes-men", that confirm what they want to hear, every decision is a gamble with disaster, failing to have the test of early intelligent scrutiny.

Just think about that next time someone disagrees with your plans. Because that timely feedback helps you and your team to avoid mistakes and move towards better products, strategies and executions.

Moscow

A city that was new to me. Center of the city park. August 2013. A Sun that didn't warm my body or soul. 50-year old men drinking vodka on the park benches. 18-year old scantly dressed girls on leather striking poses to take photos, always with a sad face and no smile. 60-year old babushas, with tired eyes, watching life go by. While the Porsches zoomed around non-stop. A lot more than the Kremlin, Saint Basil's or the Red Square, this is the image I have from Moscow. An unequal and sad city. 

The red button

It seems Russia is not winning ground as fast as it expected in Ukraine and the war is costing Russia around €18 Billions a day (estimate, sources unconfirmed). Additionally, Russia will face very serious financial liquidity issues tomorrow, when banks open - its sovereign debt has been graded as "junk", SWIFT access will be lost, there is already a bank run going on (on ATMs).

But Putin cannot lose this war, or his position will be in considerable jeopardy. Maybe even himself.

So, there is the risk that pressing a button and launching a nuclear strike on Kiev to announce a victory internally might be considered a feasible and positive solution.

Tyrants

"All through history, there have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall, always." - Mahatma Ghandi

Digitisation

"Today's Publico editorial is a war cry for the digitisation of the Portuguese economy, a reminder of the once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity ahead of us but also that the clock is ticking fast!" - Bernardo Correia, Google Country Manager (Portugal)

Complex

 "Simple rules produce complex behavior. Complex rules produce stupid behavior." - Andrew Hunt.

The nacidiots

The title is my free translation. The great article from Carlos Guimarães Pinto is here (in Portuguese).