Unemployment rate evolution

News are out today that Portugal's unemployment rate was 12.6% in April, reflecting the degradation of business and economical environment in the country, and actually keeping the trend started in 2009. Still, we shouldn't look at that as a tipping point - actually, many reports (including SIBS credit and debit card system) indicate that Consumption in Portugal has just started to slow down, implying the readjustment will still continue and deepen for the next few months / years. That will naturally reflect in the Employment (smoothed by any Exports positive evolution), that is actually expected to reach 14.4% (or 800.000 active persons actively seeking for a job) in the next year / year and a half. If to that figure we had the 200.000 unemployed that stopped searching for a job (thus out of the official stats), we reach the 1 Million figure, and a 18% actual unemployment rate. And that... that is scary!

A big question should be how will we fuel the Economy to create new jobs for these persons!

http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/desemprego-atingiu-novo-maximo-historico-de-126-por-cento-em-abril_1496785

The stone raft - where Portugal is drifting

I just wrote an article (in Portuguese) for Portugal visto de fora - http://www.portugalvistodefora.com/2011/05/jangada-de-pedra-para-onde-vogamos.html .

Educated mocking?

I had disturbing news yesterday. Yes, Portuguese immigrants are starting to be mocked in European countries. Because of the need to ask for the European Rescue Fund help? No, actually. They are being mocked because there is still the chance that the person that led Portugal to bankruptcy might get another term at the Government. And, this is true...

Why not?

It is undeniable that nowadays citizens feel distant from Politics in Portugal, and actually absent from national decision making. I have the strong impression that the People doesn't see themselves reflected on the Parliament they elected and the decisions that are taken in there. And, the truth is, from my standpoint, they are right. Members of Parliament are subject to parties rules that make them obey the central voting directive - actually, electors nowadays vote for a party, and not a specific deputy to whom they will cast their representation. And I think that is just wrong.

I am strongly for an election system that actually empowers deputies with the vote and opinions of the person who voted for him. When I look at that, I aspire to a closer relationship between voters and politicians, like in the US - where everyone knows who they are voting for, and hold those politicians directly accountable for their acts, proposals and Congress votes.

I am strongly for the creation of unique nominational circles. In which the voters would vote for the candidates (backed or not by parties), electing them as representatives for that circle. Meaning every citizen would be able to know who was it voting for, and demanding accountability to the deputy and not the party (that obscure and undefined figure). And prompting accountability of the elected member, but also for the elector. Prompting also its interest in what was being discussed and decided. Giving it the power to influence and shape the deputy's vote.

Political parties in Portugal act like they owned the deputies. But actually, it should be the electors owning them. We should make it clearer!

The ugly truth - a cut-through analysis at a different angle

So, lets face it. It is not only what you are, is also what you look like. It always is. And that is particularly true when you are talking about Portuguese politicians.

Lets think about it. Probably Manuela Ferreira Leite (leader of the main opposition party at the time) lost the last general elections because she was old and ugly - meaning her image was not attractive enough to gather attention from electors, and actually prompted a few jokes about her. Makes you think that if she would resemble a bit more Cristina Kirchner (Argentina's President) or Sarah Palin (defeated Republican candidate for the Vice-Presidency of the USA) maybe her chances and voting would be a bit higher. Even because almost all she was talking about during the pre-campaign... well... it has happened!

Socrates (the Portuguese demissionary Prime-Minister, campaigning for another term) is the opposite. First point - he dresses well. He actually is the only Portuguese politician that I think is able to mix modern style without being provocative. He is still sober, but his clothing stand out of the rest. The truth is he dresses so well that he really needed to fend off claims he was gay - a "political death sentence" in a still conservative country (and least on that angle). He is also fit (he actually makes a point of being pictured whilst jogging - though is running is still a question mark for me, as his times on 10Ks are significant slower than mine... and I am not a fast runner!) and knows how to speak - he is actually a master on that, with a strong, deep but still vibrant and joyfull voice. I really think that his image is an incredible asset, being able to draw in all the voters that think a politician should have a good figure to represent Portugal at international events. And it also attracts everyone that likes a pretty face, and actually (while undecided and not informed enough) will elect that as the prime factor of choice.

Now, you think of Passos Coelho (Socrates main oppositor for the upcoming elections) and you feel he should get a different image consultant. He has very positive points that actual balance Socrates - he is tall (and when you look at the stats from American candidates, you realise that is actually crucial...), handsome and has a good, reassuring and vibrant voice. But then, he really doesn't know how to dress, he is very conservative and classic, and while that could be positive for a string of his potential electors, the point is he really is only grey and dull. And though he has a good voice (and actually good reasoning as well), he is not able to put his messages in a simple enough manner that would help him build his point across.

And just a last example on Portuguese politicians. Jerónimo de Sousa, the Communist Party leader, who dresses smartly, showing he is a person with responsibilities, but wearing no tie - the symbol of capitalist oppression (yes, it still is a sign you are in a management position in Portugal...). But, probably, his greatest asset is his face. He has a strong, rugged face, that tells to his potential voters that he was not a golden-boy, that he actually worked hard for his living in a factory. And, that is just perfect for a communist leader!

The main lesson here, in my opinion, is that if you want to get to a political nomination position, you also have to work you looks. After all, and as everyone knows in marketing, packaging is part of communication...

Obrigado Tiago!

(sorry, this post will be in Portuguese)

Obrigado Tiago, por teres publicado o manifesto do Movimento 15M, em Espanha. ( http://ovoodoflamingo.blogspot.com/2011/05/o-que-anda-agitar-sociedade-espanhola.html )

Confesso que me identifico com partes dele. Afinal, também eu estou farto da corrupção, farto da lentidão da justiça, farto de ver boas leis que não são para todos, farto de não saber exactamente quem são os meus representantes políticos para os poder responsabilizar, por falar nisso, farto de não ver os políticos responsabilizados pelos seus actos, farto da incompetência, da lentidão, farto de ver os meus impostos a pagarem toda esta inoperância, ineficiência e desonestidade. Farto!

4 quick paragraphs on Europe

I really think that many of the comments we usually read on press or hear from most of European politicians are missing the big picture.

The truth is Europe is really becoming less and less relevant, as D&E economies grow to maximise and extent their potential. Many of those economies have bigger, younger populations, still have good natural resources, many have good education systems (at least for an elite) and are eager to grow. And, have unified economies and political systems for hundreds of millions of consumers. (and are becoming politically stable, reducing the risk of investment)

Europe is made of small countries (even Germany), fragmented, and without unified economies. This hinders Europe's growth potential and also the leveraging any company might have whilst operating in Europe. Hence, it is probably limiting Return On Investment in the continent. Which in term will jeopardize Europe's economy position (and, in due time, our individual living quality and patterns - sorry).

The only way to counteract this? Unify economies and leverage the power of more than 300 Million consumers, with modern consuming, investment, educational patterns. And we need a single currency and bigger political integration for that.

Softer landing

Probably influenced by the results of the initial programm in Greece, but also recognising the need to protect and fuel growth (at the core of Portugal's problems), the FMI intervention seems to be less harsh than the Greek one. Lets wait to see if this is really the case - and give me a bit of time to have a thorough look at the effective document...

http://economia.publico.pt/noticia/conheca-as-principais-medidas-previstas-no-acordo_1492628