24th February

A year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. I thought all would be done in two days. Incredibly, though, the Ukrainian people fought back in an impressive way and was able to stop the invasion - and even revert part of it. There still much to be recovered, but all in all, this last year is an incredible testimony to the power of Freedom, self-determination and free speech.

Pricing

The recent drop in natural gas consumption in Europe (-20% Aug 22 to Jan 23 vs a year before) shows, once more, the formidable power of pricing to change behaviors. There isn't much to match a dynamic price-offer-demand balance.

João Salgueiro - RIP

João Sagueiro was my Professor at Nova School of Business and Economics (at the time, still FEUNL).  I have fond memories of his classes and of him. RIP. 

On the latest housing policy announcements in Portugal

 Let's spare the slogans. I have serious doubts the latest announcement on housing policies in Portugal will have a positive impact. The tax decrease is really low, the fixed housing rent pricing is a real risk for the supply side, trust in the State as a rent-paying entity is really low (after all, the State is the biggest debtor in the Portuguese economy, and often it carries overdue debt).

I believe these measures will actually have a reverse impact vs what's intended. There are four main jeopardies:

1) The usurpation of private property and the signal it sends to national and foreign investors (probably, the measures announced are actually not aligned to the Portuguese Constitution);

2) It fuels low quality building and locations (watch out for floods and earthquakes);

3) It prompts Public funds abuse through the simplification of housing sales to the State itself;

4) It risks being a strike on the tourism sector, through the short-term rental restrictions it will impose. This also poses a risk to urban requalification, as we have learned from the past 50 years in Lisbon and Porto.

Finally, the announcement doesn't target the two main housing problems in Portugal, the ones at the root of the problem:

- Tax and bureaucratic complexity (more than 50% of building costs are related to tax and bureaucracy, leaving only a 4% non-risk adjusted operational margin for promoters);

- Portuguese income is significantly below European averages (and this is far from being an easy-to-solve problem)

India > China

It's possible (though not certain) that India surpasses China in population still in 2023.