To fully understand what BRICs are worried about, please, have a look at my short article from early February - http://www.my2centsontheworld.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/on-real-appreciation.html .
Thursday 29 March 2012
Think positive VI
The Scientist (science research magazine) has just nominated Champalimaud Foundation in Portugal as the best place to work for post-graduates outside of the US! Congrats for the good work!
A quick note on strikes
Strikes are necessary in a democracy, and their importance should never be played down. I firmly believe in strikes as a last resort action from workers. Now, 2 very quick thoughts:
- I will never understand and actually tolerate picketers, who try to force their positions and opinions upon others. If some workers want to work and not be a part of the strike, for me, the action of picketers is a serious offense to freedom of speech.
- I don't like the sellfishness that unions are showing in many Southern European countries, fighting to keep some privileges to a restricted number of workers, while actually staving off youngsters from the labor market. It is striking to look at Spain and understand that with a 40% youth unemployment rate, unions are fighting against the possibility of firing unemproductive people to create job openings. It is very sad, in may opinion.
Sunday 25 March 2012
Rule of Law
The case of Portuguese SPE company participation in Angolan SML just highlights how important it is he Rule of Law on foreign investment. Without independent, trusty and fast courts, able to work and effectively decide on disputes, any investor risks being in very difficult situations caused by arbitrary rules of State or strong local interests. And it also highlights another reason why investment in Angola is extremely risky.
Tuesday 13 March 2012
Loosening it up a bit
The European decision to let Spain have a bit more of flexibility on its deficit consolidation in 2012 (giving up on a 4.4% target, to accept a 5.8% one) is a wise one and it may be showing European leadership is starting to understand the message that we can't only control the deficit by cutting selvatically on public spending - we need to wisely cut it, but maintain a growth outlook. Let's see what comes next on this...
Vatican statement on water
I am always very ready to criticise the Vatican when they actually take a stance I don't like. So, it is only fair that I highlight when they do somethig I appreciate. Though I don't fully agree with some of the things the Vatican is saying about water, I agree with the bottom line principle - water is more than a commodity, it has an intrinsec social value, and access to it should be guaranteed.
Monday 12 March 2012
Assertivity and productivity
One on one, the Portuguese situation. If you understand Portuguese, you really need to read this interview - it conveys some very good messages and imagens and what not to do.
Saturday 10 March 2012
90% of Portuguese savings is done by 20% of the families
Two quick words on this stat:
1) It shows there is a huge assimetry in the Portuguese population, in terms of earnings;
2) Savings are an engine for growth through bank investment. If a population is not saving enough, and benefiting consumption (especially of foreign products), it is effectively jeopardizing its future.
So, we need to address this, by playing on clear rules and remunerations and giving incentives to savings. We need to find out how.
Thursday 8 March 2012
This morning's taxi driver
I love talking with taxi drivers. In those 15 or 20 minutes, I have the opportunity to have a good talk with real, everyday people - to sense the pulse. This morning, I had a good character - worried with unemployment, with strong opinions on Greece and Europe, Portugal lover (of course) and Mourinho fan. And, amidst all the things he said, one thing keeps jumping to my mind - "Some years ago, Spain's youth unemployment at 45% would mean a war". And I think he is right - there is a bomb ready to blast in Southern Europe.
Monday 5 March 2012
Political accountability
A former Iceland Prime-Minister is facing Court today for negligence in the process that led to his country bankruptcy. A group of Members of the Parliament formalised the charge after the Parliament considered him as having significant responsibilities in the process. Thus, a special Court that is in place under the Constitution, to try former Government members, is now trying him. My friends, that is political accountability - can anyone imagine if something like this existed and worked in Portugal?
Sunday 4 March 2012
You can't copy only part of the example and expect the same level of results
That's my comment on Villas-Boas getting sacked by Chelsea. Villas-Boas joined the club under the nickname "Special 2" - a softer, nicer version of cult manager José Mourinho. But, the fact is that the harsh and controversial attitude of Mourinho is a design to make sure the whole team is reunited behind him, and the players know he will be there for them, whatever it happens. Villas-Boas failed to understand that, and to actually get players support. For me, this is a very clear example of a "you can't copy only part of the example and expect the same results" - managing teams (whether football or business) is complex, and everything is interrelated. You need to know to manage each piece as part of the whole, to get to your overall objective - not your small, partial ones.
Friday 2 March 2012
An Economist article worth reading
It is not a big analysis. But, for a quick summary of the Portuguese feeling nowadays, I think it is worth reading this Economist article - http://www.economist.com/node/21548977
On real appreciation
BRR (Brazilian Real) is on a valuation trend. Still, President Dilma is wrong in pointing the finger to the US and (especially) Europe alone. It is true that (mainly in the US) some measures were taken in the developed countries to protect their economies (and, in my view, actually, not enough, probably, at least in Europe). But we can't forget that a currency value is directly linked to productivity, and, as Brazilian economy gets modernized and Labor gets more qualified, productivity will go up and will tend to value the BRR. Dilma is trying to blame others on a movement that is just natural in economy.
Now, having siad that, if you base a country's economy on basic undifferentiated products, then, a currency valuation is bad news. And that is what Dilma fears - that by getting production more expensive through currency valuation, the commodities commerce that has been Brazil's engine source will eventually stop working as swiftly as it is. But Brazil economy is getting increasingly more competitive on other products as well, and its economy is swiftly moving towards value increase and not low cost. So, you know, BRR valuation willnot be easy to stop - and that might be good news to Brazilians, who will have an increased buying power. Let's see what happens in the next years...
You get what you give
The study saying that Germany gets back €1.25 per each €1 given to its EU partners, as part of the European Cohesion funds should not be a surprise. After all, they are generating Investment for economical modernization, and Germany is an expert on that matter, with a solid exporting industry.
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