A standard measure of a people's literacy is the number of books and newspapers it buys. Still, in an era of media transformation, great caution should be exerted, when looking at declining figures. Newspapers, nowadays, are read online (even the big editorial and journalistic articles and stories) and even books are nowadays bought and downloaded for Kindles, iPhones, iPads and the likes. Of the 8 books I bought this year, 6 of them were bought through Amazon - and that means all the traditional regular market studies will never consider them in their stats...
Sunday 30 October 2011
Friday 28 October 2011
Deja vu @ Apple
Some months ago I warned that Apple might letting themselves be cornered, just as they did at the PC wars - the article is this one http://my2centsontheworld.blogspot.com/2011/06/on-ios-and-apple.html . Now, fresh news that Samsung has overtaken Apple has the biggest smartphone manufacturer might be confirming it - the Cupertino brand by insisting on an exclusive and close operative system environment might be limiting its potential to a market niche on the long run. Let's wait and see...
Unemployment rate in Spain - 21.56%
Unemployment rate in Spain is now 21.6%, meaning 5 Million Spaniards are looking for a job and not finding it. This is a huge problem that needs urgently to be solved - it is choking growth, public books,... And it is not only a Spanish problem - all Southern Europe has it. Not solving it in the near future is boycotting the hopes of millions of persons - we need to kick start economic growth in a sustainable way, that allows for job creation and fuels it in turn in a virtuous circle.
Thursday 27 October 2011
Room to breathe
The major resolutions that were announced after yesterday's European meeting, though important and crucial for the eurozone survival, are not the answer to the real problems behind the nowadays crisis. They only provide some room to breathe, so that the root causes can be addressed, namely a deeper integration at political level (from an economical and financial perspective), resulting in stronger European institutions, and a better definition of the path to make the peripheral economies go back to growth whilst addressing the State burden in the economy. If we don't use this "oxygen balloon" to progress in these points, Europe will find itself in the same situation in a couple of months.
Tuesday 25 October 2011
Think positive II
- Portugal has an incredible potential on what regards tourism. From an American perspective, we have all they seek when coming for holidays in Europe - in a combination that is probably only matched by Italy (actually, we might even overtake them...). We have the best beaches in Europe, an incredible history, castles and monuments to atest to it, a friendly country, a tasty cuisine, mountains, forests, romans, arabs, great battles, a friendly and English-speaking people, great wine, incredible landscapes, an amazing town...
- We are one of the safest countries in the World;
- Despite being only 11M inhabitants, Portugal is home to 2 UN High Commissioners, the best Football Manager, 2 of the best Football players of the last 2 decades, 1 Literature Nobel Prize (though recently deceased), the CEO of Lloyds Bank, 1 Olympic Gold medallist, the best female triathlete of all time, 1 Off-Road champion,...
Sunday 23 October 2011
Pardoning public debt? No thank you!
The first thing people have to bear in mind is that a pardon has a cost - and in this case a huge one. Pardoning part of a country's debt will mean that the international sovereign debt markets will be closed to that country, with dire consequences:
- in Portugal, part of the current expenses of the State are being funded directly by debt. Cutting this would mean wages not being paid. It is as simple as so;
- the State would need to live out of its own revenues - as it should. But as it isn't. Doing that all of a sudden, in a hard stop, without any contribution from economic growth would mean the need to impose strong and tough measures - even tougher than the ones already in place (and that I think are already extremely hard and limiting);
- debt exists to fund investment. No debt would mean no investment - because it would need to be funded solely by the State revenues, and those would not be enough. Just ask Argentina how it is - though some people are painting a rosy picture of it nowadays, the curtail of investment is limiting its economic growth.
So, stay away of public debt pardons. We will need to fend it by ourselves, honoring our commitments.
Friday 21 October 2011
We need growth!
No doubt about it - so, let's be clear from the start. I support the measures that were taken to reduce the weight of the Public sector in the economy - both from a State Machine (you don't know? Go to my previous post) and privatizations point of view (ok, there might be a few that, in my opinion are disputable). But, I feel something is missing - we also need a growth policy. I am saying it very clearly here and there - we need to understand how we will put this country back to growth. Not by running into debt, but by being productive. And this is actually the only way to put the budget under control. And to generate employment. And to start a virtuous circle of growth.
Thursday 20 October 2011
Reducing the State
Many persons claim that the Portuguese State Machine (the administrative machine that runs the country from an executive point of view) is too big for the size of the country - and they are right! But people should understand what it means - it means to cut Public employees wages and benefits, to dismiss a relevant number of them, to cut committees, cabinets, ... and the people that work there. This is necessary and will happen - and it will mean unemployment, at least until the Private sector generates enough growth to absorb a number of these people!
P.S- It will also mean that people that remain working in the State Machine (is this my own expression?) will need to work more. Unavoidable and logical. Period.
Tuesday 18 October 2011
Think positive - I
- Ericeira is one of the first areas in the world to be declared global surf reserve;
- Portuguese wines are (finally) getting the attention and worldwide recognition they deserve, winning several international prizes;
- Azores is being constantly highlighted in travel magazines and blogs as one of the best nature vacation spots in the world.
- Portuguese wines are (finally) getting the attention and worldwide recognition they deserve, winning several international prizes;
- Azores is being constantly highlighted in travel magazines and blogs as one of the best nature vacation spots in the world.
All of these means pride! And it also means opportunities!
Friday 14 October 2011
On Consumption
Reading yesterday's Portuguese Government announcement on new measures ( http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/principais-medidas-anunciadas-por-passos-coelho-1516383 ) I actually started feeling a chill. For personal reasons (not only for myself, but especially for the persons I really care that live in Portugal) but also for economy reasons. I think that the biggest question now is - how will Consumption hold?
Public servants wages were cut 14%, taxes are raising steadily, public investment is dropping - how will Portugal's GDP behave? Of course there will a contraction - the question is how big will it be? Consumption is key to GDP behaviour!
We shouldn't doubt that it was necessary to break the overheaten cycle of Portuguese Consumption - based on debt and not on productivity. We simply were spending too much above our own capacity - and that would clearly backfire. It was just a matter of time. But this strong break is a very heavy one. If Consumption breaks too hard, it might affect Portugal's (tiny) productive muscle (tourism, restaurants, specialty agriculture,...) and cause severe unemployment, causing social unrest, bla bla bla...
Some people (and see the attached post - http://www.portugalvistodefora.com/2011/10/distribuir-o-mal-pelas-aldeias.html ) argue it would be best to cut straight and fire 14% of public servants - that would enable a leaner and more efficient Public Administration (a much needed one, actually). I think the Government decided not to do it, not only because of civil unrest, but also for concerns on the effects of Consumption and unemployment subsidies - meaning a possibly stronger break on Consumption and no short-term adjustment on Public Spending, as subsidies would be paid still for one year. So, a possibly sharper decrease on GDP (and that means less taxes and higher unemployment) and a negative effect on Government budget evolution. Not a good measure then, though I thoroughly agree on the need to a sharper and smaller Public Administration.
But I am really worried. I feel the break we are applying to Consumption might be to strong and send us to a vicious circle we can't escape. My view on solutions? See it in the next few days.
Wednesday 12 October 2011
Soros appeal
If even George Soros appeals for a concrete political solution for the European crisis, politicians should listen. After all, the Hungarian made part of his fortune exploring the weaknesses of European common currencies, and, as so, knows very well what he is talking about when he shares his opinion on what is to come. Europe, the solution for these problems is integration - please, move in the right direction!
Tuesday 11 October 2011
Systemic crisis
I do have to agree with Jean-Claude Trichet - the inability of European politicians left this crisis spiral to become systemic, now jeopardizing European stability and economy. The question is, apart from words, what is being done on this?
Wednesday 5 October 2011
Time is time, right?
A very interesting article (thanks Tiago) on time management, that really pops up a "I recognize this" sign in my head. Worthy to have a look at, especially as it hints at time management from a "Return on Time" perspective - http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/219553
Monday 3 October 2011
Tiger Woods - how brilliant would that be?
You know when a player has won everything there is to win, was cheered by all the fans of that sport and is incredibly beloved by everyone and cast as an example? How much excitement can a guy like that still bring, how much extra interest and revenue can he still generate? If he wins, it was expected, if he loses he played bad - nothing very crowd grabbing, though! Or, even worst, he is an incredible player, has done all of the above, and suddenly, he loses his face due to ethical reasons and everybody starts hating him - if he keeps winning, how much interest can he get, how many sponsors could he still draw in?
Now... let's imagine that man talent seems crumbled to pieces, he can't get back on the winning track again, he loses, he slips out of the top players list, he becomes a mess! Isn't that the set for a great comeback? One that could energise the world of that sport, to gain him the focus of attentions, to ressurrect him in front of his fans, to make them forget all his moral and ethical problems and draw sponsorships again? Wouldn't that be a great story, Mr Tiger Woods?
One of the most evident...
... messages from the current Euro crisis is that the European governance model doesn't work. It is too slow, bureaucratic, costly, with too much room for interpretation and not enough weight on the common decisions. Almunia is right on his address, and, if we don't act on it, then the Euro will be a weak and failed project - and Europe will slip on its global importance, with all the consequences that will have from a quality of living standpoint...
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