Portugal is shoulder deep on the pandemic. Our economy is dying, we are locked at home and we are the worst country in the world in terms of infection and covid-deaths per million inhabitant. It is a complete disaster - people are dying (literally) in throves and the national health system has collapsed. Medical teams (doctors, nurses, hospital directors) are doing an amazing work, but are exhausted vs the tsunami we are dealing with.
I have been quite vocal about the mistakes that led to this - as I believe they are mostly structural. Now, sometimes people tell me "ok, you have your own view on what Portugal should have done, but what about now - what could be done right now?". Let me give you my view:
- First of all, lets be clear. A lockdown is not a strategy. It is not a solution. It is a very necessary tactic, a hand break that offers a temporary solution to the pandemic lack of control. But as soon as you lift it, the infection numbers start climbing again. So, the lockdown buys you time - much needed time. But then you need to put in place the tools that do the sustainable work.
On these, I think we should be implementing four measures (one of them is already in place, but I will mention it nonetheless):
1) StayAway Covid is a smartphone app that was released in late Q3 2020. We can say many things about it - namely that it only works in smartphones with a kind of latest operating system. But the truth is the app is safe from a personal data perspective (it was designed to keep the user and interactions anonymous) - and that has been the center of discussion when it was released. I believe (looking at the Asian democracies examples) that this app should be compulsory (for everyone carrying a smartphone at least - and this will be the majority of the population) and automatic (when a person receives a PCR test positive result, the code should be automatic, within the test result). It would have a very strong effect in terms of contact tracing and information. One of the problems we currently have is that we don't know where 87% of the cases come from - that means decision-making is flying half blind and many of our current problems come from this;
2) We need to invest strongly in contact tracing. Portugal currently has many job openings in this area (and they don't pay that bad, for the Portuguese context), but most of them remain open and are not fulfilled. We also demand a Health related diploma for people applying to these positions - and that is probably part of the problem. Now, contact tracing is a very effective tool if it is done fast enough to prevent escalation of individual cases (as we can see from Asia and some European countries) - but you need to have a dedicated work force for that. I think we should change the requirements and employ private call centers to do this. Probably that means to change the contact protocol, and move it to a two tier if needed, with one tier of generic contact (done by private call centers) and a second one, when needed, done by health professionals.
3) When the current infection figures start subsidizing, start a mass trial event - test all the Portuguese population in a few days (2, 3, 4, 5?). All positive results need to stay at home for 2 weeks. This would help us to jump start de-lockdown on a scientific and figure-based approach
4) Control the import of positive cases- meaning, impose Australian like measures to people visiting the country until we can say we have the pandemic under control. This measure is currently in place, but we need to enforce it for the next few months - and if herd immunity has not been achieved within the risk-community of the country by that time, it means the measures should extend to summer months.
This is my view and proposals. Stay safe!
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