Tuesday 22 December 2009

Wag, the dog!

In this brilliant 90's movie, a US President facing a severe internal problem finds he needs a strong public opinion distraction for political survival. As so, he stages a war to get the People on his side and with their mind away from the real problems.


Every time I watch the Portuguese Government trying to create a standoff with the President, pressing forward a politically controversial debate or using cheap rhetorical words, I remember this movie. As I just a Government runing away from solving a deep economical, financial and judicial crisis. Or covering huge inefficiency and corruption accusations. And I am scared.

Tuesday 15 December 2009

Helena

I always liked this woman. I liked the way she spoke, her messages, even though I was really very young - tenish since I heard her. Nowadays, it doesn't surprise me she is a non-affiliated politician. The freshness, senseness and positive realism of her words and actions make her stand apart from the rest of the pack. She is my number one Portuguese politician.

Bailout money repayment

It is curious to watch that American banks are starting to pay their bailout governmental funds. It is interesting to watch it from the Portuguese perspective - because we then realise that the US only lent these funds to banks, didn't give them for free. It means funds to banks were just considered a loan (not a giveaway) that banks would need to repay back. Interesting!

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/14/news/companies/Wells_Fargo_TARP/index.htm?cnn=yes

Sunday 13 December 2009

Anúncio Nespresso - What else?

Usually commercials with celebrities tend to be boring endorsements. Everytime I watch a Nespresso film I grow more admired!

Saturday 12 December 2009

Why is that...

One of the things that really uneasies me is when I listen to politicians complain about something. There we have the country's top law makers, blaming others for not being able to do something - when we have empowered them, we have voted our power of making rules and laws and changes into their hands. And, then, the way they say it "They don't let me do my plan"... but never a sole reference to "I have problems in accomplish what I believe is the best for my country... and was empowered to".

Friday 4 December 2009

On Aenor and Lusoponte as financial vehicles

The discussion on financial vehicles is definitively on. And is now finally reaching Portugal.


Vehicles are accounting and financial constructions to allow for a credit detachment from the main corporation. They are usually build to ensure credit quality without harming the main corporation debt level - thus lowering financing costs. They played at the forefront of the financial market from the late 90's throughout the past decade. But they were also one of the reasons for the financial market crumble of the last 2 years - the detachments were not as real as the money lending had assumed. Actually, they allowed companies to raise money at a lower cost vs the real incurred risk. And when the projects these vehicles financed came crumbling, it became obvious they were not really independent from the companies that created them - meaning they grabbed and pushed those companies in their fall. Some of the largest bankruptcies over the last year occurred as vehicles were unable to sustain themselves, creating a domino effect on both companies and lenders.


Aenor and Lusoponte are two consortiums put together to build and operate large road infrastructures in Portugal. They were built as financial vehicles, to allow for cheaper financing for both the vehicle (as it presented the infrastructure as a direct guarantee) and the companies behind them (as the debt incurred was not fully consolidated). And they are now in the center of the vehicles discussion in Portugal.


Banco de Portugal (regulatory entity for Portuguese banking system) is asking for an accounting review on this projects and the way some banks (namely BCP, one of the largest Portuguese banks, and one of the most affected by the nowadays crisis) consider them on their lending figures. If those vehicles are fully reflected as actual risks of the mother companies (specially Mota-Engil, the largest represented company), it may change the actual credit picture of those companies and banks. And mean a very different risk exposure image vs the one that is now presented at our eyes. With the subsequent finance cost implications for those companies and banks. But not considering the lessons on vehicles that we learnt over this past year, may simply mean that we are ignoring a huge possible pitfall - the kind of backfire that may give a strong shake to the Portuguese economic system.

On Aenor and Lusoponte as financial vehicles

The discussion on financial vehicles is definitively on. And is now finally reaching Portugal.


Vehicles are accounting and financial constructions to allow for a credit detachment from the main corporation. They are usually build to ensure credit quality without harming the main corporation debt level - thus lowering financing costs. They played at the forefront of the financial market from the late 90's throughout the past decade. But they were also one of the reasons for the financial market crumble of the last 2 years - the detachments were not as real as the money lending had assumed. Actually, they allowed companies to raise money at a lower cost vs the real incurred risk. And when the projects these vehicles financed came crumbling, it became obvious they were not really independent from the companies that created them - meaning they grabbed and pushed those companies in their fall. Some of the largest bankruptcies over the last year occurred as vehicles were unable to sustain themselves, creating a domino effect on both companies and lenders.


Aenor and Lusoponte are two consortiums put together to build and operate large road infrastructures in Portugal. They were built as financial vehicles, to allow for cheaper financing for both the vehicle (as it presented the infrastructure as a direct guarantee) and the companies behind them (as the debt incurred was not fully consolidated). And they are now in the center of the vehicles discussion in Portugal.


Banco de Portugal (regulatory entity for Portuguese banking system) is asking for an accounting review on this projects and the way some banks (namely BCP, one of the largest Portuguese banks, and one of the most affected by the nowadays crisis) consider them on their lending figures. If those vehicles are fully reflected as actual risks of the mother companies (specially Mota-Engil, the largest represented company), it may change the actual credit picture of those companies and banks. And mean a very different risk exposure image vs the one that is now presented at our eyes. With the subsequent finance cost implications for those companies and banks. But not considering the lessons on vehicles that we learnt over this past year, may simply mean that we are ignoring a huge possible pitfall - the kind of backfire that may give a strong shake to the Portuguese economic system.

Thursday 3 December 2009

Leveza e preocupação

O Ministro das Finanças português comunicou ontem que o défice orçamental será superior a 8% no exercício de 2009. Se a leveza com que um número desta magnitude é comunicado é preocupante, mais o é a noção da eficácia mínima da alavancagem do endividamento público - este 'fosso' orçamental, que deveria ser um acelerador do crescimento português em tempo de crise, mais não fez do que manter o decréscimo da economia portuguesa ao mesmo nível da performance de parceiros da União Europeia bem mais saudáveis. Isto, perante um autêntico 'monstro' de endividamento do Estado português que, não ignoremos, terá que ser pago no futuro (ainda na nossa geração, ou na dos nossos filhos).

O FMI e a EU têm sido muito claros no caminho que Portugal deve seguir com vista ao controlo da sua situação financeira, e ao caminho para a retoma económica - no entanto, os seus conselhos (que face à nossa situação deveriam realmente ser considerados mandatórios) têm sido continuamente ignorados, e mascarados com pequenos fait-divers.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1412279

Wednesday 2 December 2009

O comportamento irracional do mercado

A very interesting Time article, about the way the market behaves. I must say it is mostly aligned with my personal thoughts - that the market is a lot less rational than economical theory states!