Wednesday 27 January 2010

We need a longer term strategy

The figures are out. Portugal Governmental deficit reached 9.3% in 2009. 2010 projections point for a 1% reduction and a 8.3% figure - meaning Public Debt will be at 85.4% of total GDP, a 880 bps increase vs 2009... Public Debt service will weight between 5 and 8% of Portugal's GDP. After a strong slumpdown in 2009, GDP is supposed to laggardly grow at 80 bps in 2010. Portugal is in a severe crisis - no new news... What nobody is relating is that this financial crisis comes together with a economical one. One of a lack of competitiveness of Portuguese companies in the international market - every year we are able to add less and less competitive products and services in the global economy.


There are urgent needs to tackle and actions to be taken. But what is surprising is the lack of consistency on them - the lack of a longer term purpose for all the actions, of a strategy that tells us what and how we should guide our present day actions. Because economy doesn't end on Governmental Budget management!


Portugal needs a long term strategy. Some (few) persons have been telling that for years - the issue seems to be vanished of political speeches and minds for years. The last real effort was the Porter Report back in the 90's - and very little action ensued it. We need to know were we are aiming for, how we want Portugal to be in 10, 20 years - economically talking. How we will grow. How we will support that growth. What is needed to support our vision - what actions, what policies, what choices!


That is above political parties. It is down to society. We have the responsability to demand that strategy!


And lets be honest about it. If we don't, if we are to be unable to build a national economic strategy, we will sink. In debt. In poverty. In less-development. Our companies will not be able to sell products to other markets. They will not be able to compete with foreign companies in our market. They will sell less and less. So they will need less people. Less business and higher unemployment means less taxes. Which means higher debt. Which means higher debt service. Which...


We need to break this flow, this cycle. We need to be able to think longer term! So we can start taking the necessary actions now!

Friday 15 January 2010

The Government must provide

Highly recommendable reading about Angola. A special prize for who identifies similarities with Portuguese situations...

Thursday 7 January 2010

The alarm is ringing!

If there is a confirmation of initial estimations, Portugal's consolidated public debt is already at 100% of national GDP - and can surmount to 120% in 2013 (just 4 years from now).


This is just another figure to sound a strong and persistent alarm at Portugal's financial and economic conditions. We need to act now to avert a even deeper and more dangerous situation - and that might be called a State bankruptcy.


http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1416579

Wednesday 6 January 2010

Football debts

You know when you are looking at a market bubble while everyone sitting on that market seems to be blind and don't do nothing about it? You don't? Then look at football!


Football business is incurring in an incredible level of debt - paying high wages, transfer fees and operational costs at a level that is not payable by its current income. When we look at the debt levels of some of the top outfits in the business and its progression over the last years, we are looking at a huge piece of glass standing in a very small beach - one which that the industry will trample very quickly.


http://edition.cnn.com/2010/SPORT/football/01/06/football.manchester.bayern.debt/index.html

And the wind bring us good news

In 2009, about 15% of total energy used in Portuguese households came from wind energy farms. This is part of a sustainable alternative energy strategy, that is being pursuit by Portugal over the last years - and that is supposed to keep building up over the next ones. The target is that 45% of the energy used in Portugal comes from alternative energy sources by 2010 - nowadays, the raw figure is around 35% and the counpounded one (recognized by Eurostat) is 41%.

That is extremely good news - besides a greener environment, we are trading foreing trade dependency by homeland production. Just what we need when our foreign debt keeps increasing to titanic dimensions.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1416469