On BRIC's overtaking Europe

It's not a surprise to see Brazil overtaking the UK as the 6th biggest economy in the world. And it shouldn't be to forecast that Germany, France and Italy will slip to the last positions of the world's top ten until 2020. It is a long announced trend. The only way to actually prevent Europe from becoming a peripheral region is a strong economic and federal political union - that would actually act as one and boost the European Union (and its Eurozone) to the top position on the world's economy. Maybe the present crisis is a good wake up call on the need to actually work as one - if it survives all the pressures bearing on the Euro right now.

http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/bric-ultrapassam-potencias-da-ue-ate-ao-fim-da-decada-1526585

More work hours or more productivity?

I think this should be the real question, on labor hours in Portugal now, following the proposals that point out that every single Portuguese worker will actually work an additional 23 days next year. But, for me, that is not focused on the real question - putting more hours on the line is very different of ensuring the work done on those hours is actually building enough value. For me, policies in Portugal should be aimed at improving productivity - but, for that, Labor laws should be worked to allow firing for low productivity, and that still seems far away.

http://economia.publico.pt/noticia/propostas-do-governo-dao-as-empresas-23-dias-a-mais-por-ano-1526091

My silence

I know I have been utterly silent these last few days. I have actually just finished my MBA last week, and am now enjoying a well deserved rest - but I'll be back!

Certificados de Aforro

I just watched a commercial em Spain, promoting the sale of Spanish bonds to Spanish nationals. This is a cheaper and safer bond sale, as the liabilities stay in the country, in the hands of "not very sophisticated" investors. And I can't help but recall the mess the previous Portuguese Government did 3 years ago, changing the cash flow rules of "Certificados de Aforro" (Portuguese National bonds that were sold to the consumer) in the middle of the return period - yes, changing the money investors were expecting to receive. The marginal benefit that was reaped then, was quickly burnt in "limited value added investments", and the credibility of such bonds was destroyed. It would be incredibly invaluable now, to be able to count on this instrument to gather Portuguese investors savings, keeping liabilities in Portuguese hands - at a cheaper price than selling similar bonds to foreigner organized investors. Bravo...

Eurogeddon: the 10 failures

I think this is a too tough title for this article - I am sure the euro will survive and we will be back to growth in 1 to 2 years time. Still, I really think it is worthwhile to read this article in cnn.com, by Nina dos Santos.

http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/02/eurogeddon-the-10-failures-of-eu-leaders/?hpt=hp_c2

One of the things I love about the US...

... is the ability of actually sending politicians to jail or to successfully prosecute the Government. Judicial power is incredibly independent from political one. When I say this, I am not only comparing vs Portuguese Justice, but actually vs European one. Even in most European countries (including France) there is an unwritten protection of politicians. In the US, it is assumed the Justice exists to serve the Constituition, that serves the people - and it works, as we can see when Blagojevich, a former Illinois Governor (almost as powerful as the President of an European country), is sentenced to 14 years for corruption. How many examples like this do we have in Europe or Portugal?

http://www.publico.pt/Mundo/antigo-governador-do-illinois-condenado-a-14-anos-de-prisao-1524218

http://eraumaveznaamerica.blogs.sapo.pt/195629.html

Dear EU leaders...

... please, stop trying to solve a problem with measures that don't address the real root questions. If you try to only build funds and ransom-deposits, you are not working on the real issue - the only way to grow Europe and pay for the present living standards of European citizens is to build scale through an real economic union and to leverage potential by defining clear productivity and competitive oriented strategies. Please, start addressing that and do it very, very quickly.

Yours sincerely,

European citizen.

http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/ue-pondera-duplicar-capacidade-financeira-dos-sistema-de-resgates-da-zona-euro-1524075

http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/07/three-more-days-to-save-the-euro/?hpt=hp_bn1

Think positive IV

- Portuguese parents play more with their children than any other parents, according to an Imaginarium study. Personally, I think this is a good sign for the present (as it means they enjoy having quality time with their kids) and future (I am for that this will reflect in the children development) http://www.publico.pt/Sociedade/pais-portugueses-sao-os-que-dedicam-mais-tempo-a-brincar-com-os-filhos-1523953

- Portuguese industrial volume sales are up +2.5%, with exports being the key driver (+14.1%), over-compensating the decline in internal market. http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/negocios-na-industria-cada-vez-mais-dependente-do-exterior-1523964

- There is a €2000Ms superavit in 2011 public calculations, that will be used to inject money back to the economy.

Steer by the stars

There shouldn’t be any doubt about the need to strongly curb public spending in Portugal. It is utterly needed! And, in the process, to reduce the role of the public sector in the economy. That is of uttermost importance – but is only half of the task.

Portugal is in a transition period – in 2 years, our economy will be different. But the fact is that we have limited understanding of how that difference will look like, what that difference will actually mean. We only know we will reduce total State expenditure – but is that enough? No!

Portugal lacks a strategy for growth! We have no idea how we should and will grow – and by doing so, we have limited control of our future. Portugal should be using this transition period to actually understand its weaknesses and competitive advantages, to set forth a strategy for growth. And then to actually lay down the tactics and actions to implement that strategy. It is the only way to have a clear direction, to make the right choices, to have a guide to direct our investments and efforts. It is the only way to ensure future sustainable growth! That we utterly need as well!

“It is time we steer by the stars and not the lights of each passing ship” – General Bradley