Wednesday 27 July 2011

Are rating agencies using the same criteria?


I think this is a very valid question when you look at US and European debt situations.

Actually, US situation is not that different from the EU, namely when one thinks:

- US Sovereign Debt vs GDP was 92% in 2010, actually the same as Portuguese one (91%) - source IMF;

- The situation is especially critic in some of the States - with parcial Governmental services closures in California and total closures in Minnesotta in July;

- Unemployment rates are climbing or at highest levels;

- Many US States actually have strong competitiveness issues, that are only masked away by the others strength (like what is happening in Europe, with Germany and Portugal, just as 2 examples);

- A single currency in both regions don't allow for Monetarian adjustments to boost competitiveness (oh, I am sure Louisiana would love to be able to depreciate its currency, aren't you?);

- Federal political inabilities are hampering the speedy resolution of the underlying issues jeopardizing the economy.

So, if actually the US are not that different from Portugal, Ireland and Spain, are rating agencies actually using the same criteria? I believe the reasons that hamper US Sovereign Debt rating degradation, but I am really feeling that though European economies have issues, they aren't as bad as justifying the current ratings given by Moody's, S&P and Fitch...

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