Wednesday 29 June 2011

2 active bubbles


It is interesting to realise (and quite dangerous if you didn't) that probably there are 2 active bubbles nowadays in the markets.

I strongly believe the digital economy is probably one of them. A market bubble is typically created based on speculative expectations about future incomes. To put it in simple words - people that companies in that industry will make money, but that never happens. When we look at the digital economy, we realise there are too many companies (led by facebook) that aren't making real money yet but are already high-valued in the " stockmarket". That valued is based in their "huge potential to generate high caliber revenues in the future" - though that future has not been determined, nor the way they will realise it. They are nowadays high risk assets, as one day the market will demand the promised return, and if they don't materialise, the digital bubble will burst - and it will get ugly! (still, let's not consider all digital companies the same, as Google and linkedin have already strong and profitable business models)

The other bubble is very different. Football madness! Football clubs are paying unsustainable amounts for players - assets that many times will not provide reliable and high enough cash flows, generating multi-million euro debts. This has also been fueled by the arrival of doubtful money into the business as some clubs have been bought by owners that would pour in large sums disregarding of club ability to pay it back. The problem on that is sustainability of those values if no matching income or return value is generated. We are already starting to see the effects in some smaller clubs across europe...

Which one do you think will burst first?...

- enviado de dispositivo móvel.

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