Sunday 13 March 2011

Portugal's way out

One of main problem for Portugal (and one that is at the roots of the interest rate point that Cristina is raising) concerns growth. GDP growth has been sluggish over the last years (and below Governnamental expenditures growth...). I think that Portugal should pursue an expansionary fiscal policy based on tax cuts. But... there are a few requirements that we need to solve before moving ahead:


- we need to have a more efficient public administration. Meaning, that Governmental expenditures must be reduced. We need to spend less money and still deliver higher value to our citizens (the People). (actually, our level of efficiency is so low, that a number of measures would probably be easier to implement than forecasted, but one must have political will to do those...);


- we need to clean up the State owned companies, that provide basic services - we need to understand and refine their business models. Most of them are operating at an incredible deficit situation - meaning they will be virtual bankrupt (actually, many of them already are) and drag down our efforts if we don't know how to tackle them;


- we need to understand what is our plan for the long run. What are Portugal's sustainable competitive advantages and how can we foster them. Because these will create growth and employment, better than any other - thus, we need to understand how can we support them, if necessary through fiscal incentives. We need to draw a plan for the long run - as Gen. Sherman once said "It is time we define our path by the stars in the sky, not by pursuing the lights of the passing ships";


- we need to bring further flexibilization to the Labor market. We have a below 35years-old skilled workforce under-employed, whilst basic qualifications and skills lack in companies. Why? Because it is extremely difficult to fire someone. Thus, even there we are performing below par...;


- and we need to do all of this whilst actually reducing public deficit. We must be sure that we do this whilst our revenues (fostered by GDP growth) grows above a reducing annual public deficit.


Now, this is all possible (for those who don't know me, besides being extremely shy, I am also a keen optimist), but you need to have an incredible political strength and will. It will be (because it is the only possible path) extremely difficult!


P.S- There is a simple alternative. We (Portugal) need to find oil!

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