Tuesday 10 February 2009

A gigantic prisoner dilemma?

Part of a recession is explained because people fail to consum, being afraid of what will happen in the future - and, so, prompting it. That means that if everyone start buying and consuming again we would be able to lift off from recession, right (yes, I know I am being simplistic, but lets keep this simple for the analogy, ok?)? Easy, right? No! Hard! Because, as in any prisoner dilemma, the problem is that people in such situations (without perfect information and synchronisation) will not act as one sole body, but as billions of individual and independet decision-takers, afraid of giving the first step, consuming, just for eveyone else to be stopped and holding for their savings safe shore, so not enabling the economy to get back to growth and leaving the first brave consumier crippled in debts...

It will take massive energy and resources to give back consumers their confidence, so we can see not only an isolated first step, but many ones, as the 'prisoners' get the same information and thrust forward on the economy. It won't be easy. But it will be done!

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