Tuesday 18 November 2008

A hint on a possible coalition?

The words were pretty surprising, and let me be sincere about it, I personally think that it is the kind of blunder that can end any political career. But, when Manuela Ferreira Leite, the main opposition party leader, today said that it could be good to have a 6-months periods without democracy, she could be hinting at a bigger and bolder move than just a quick slip of tongue and thought towards more far-right wing (or far-left, don't forget it...) ideals or utopias.

Portugal is immersed in a crisis that goes well beyond the turmoil that affects the World's economy nowadays. With a 100% debt weight (GNP index), around 5% annual debt service (thus meaning, that something like 5% of all that we produce is used to pay interest....), a sharply unfavourable foreign trade sheet, sluggish (at best) economic growth over the last few years, weak productivity, an annual and consistent Office budget deficit,... Portugal is struggling to keep alive on the international scene.

Everyone knows that huge reforms are needed to correct this situation, a gigantic task that every Portuguese knows to be of epic proportions... and every Portuguese knows will take its toll on any government. So, wouldn't it be good if a government had such power for a finite period of time to tackle those reforms?

The so called "Central Block" was an early 80's government coalition, between the two biggest Portuguese political parties (closer to social democrat values), in a time when the Portugal was also in a severe crisis, paying the price for getting out of an old-fashioned government and economic system to a revolution in a increasingly high competitive and changing World. Who lived it knows just how difficult it was to put this country up for running back again.

Such a coalition nowadays would be particularly positive. It could bring the stability to put those much needed reforms running, to a point when there would be no turning back. Could it be what the country needs? I am not sure, but the situation surely looks grim, with several disfunctionalities erupting from too many systems in our nation, with structural problems highly visible in Justice, Treasury, Economy and Education. Maybe the time as come to propose something radical to fix things up.

Just a few words of caution:

- such a coalition would only work out for a short period - after some months (luckily at least two years) it would break down, amid internal turmoil, as natural ideological differencies would start to erupt, and both parties would try to become dominant. A major characteristic with such a solution would be that this would still be a democracy, and that natural differences would flair up - fortunately!;

- though such a coalition would be positive at a legislative and executive level, it shouldn't interfere with the other major State power - judicial one. Courts and police should maintain its independence and the coalition should be closely scrutinised on its activities by the judicial and presidential institutions;

- both parties should be prepared for a rough time. Public opinion would not adhere to many of the proposed politics (remember this is one of the major reasons reforms are still to implemented), and they should be brave enough to sail through the consequences... and know that at the end of the coalition, both would have lost a significant share of voters.

I am not sure at what Manuela Ferreira Leite wanted to say. But maybe she was hinting that such a solution would be possible with her on the helm of PSD. Lets hope it that was what it meant...

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Say what?

Ricardo said...

Manuela Ferreira Leite said that it could be good to have 6 months without democracy? It is the starting point of this post.