Maria José Morgado on the corruption in the Portuguese society

 A great interview (in Portuguese). 

From the Lord of the Rings

"So do all who live to see such (dark) times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us" - Gandalf

A punch to the under belly

 

Reality check. Conversa longa com o professor do puto mais velho (4° ano/público). Diz-me que há crianças naquela turma que nunca viram ou que não conhecem a Ponte Vasco da Gama. Que no agrupamento há crianças que nunca foram à praia e cujos passeios mais longe a que aqueles pais

— ounɹq (@nosuchuser) November 24, 2021

One of the most important gifts you can give your children is curiosity. And it is free - it only costs you a bit of time and its yield is tremendous. 

Human

Many people say that the future is about a "knowledge economy". And they are not wrong. But let me add a layer to this. On top of technical skills, constant learning, digital, knowledge (all key must-have dimensions of human capital in 202x), you need to think about empathy and human relationships - in a world where things are becoming increasingly automated, it is the ability to convey human warmth and emotions at scale (from "one on one" to "on to a billion") that will be the make-or-break differentiator. (Oh! And by the way - many times, you will need to be able to do it through #technology...)

Beliefs

I strongly believe in a Government limited by the Law and its rule, that can focus and strengthen its core competences, structuring a just, safe and innovative society, that promotes self-made success and the social ladder, but also provides a cushion so those in need are not left behind.

Coal and the gang

A really good article from CNN on coal powered energy production and how we need to stop it as quickly as possible to reach the +1.5C goal. A very good read. 

Science and Europe

It was recently published the latest Eurobarometer study about the relationship between Europeans and Science. A must read, in my opinion.

Simple maths

Gigantic Government operations, involved in too many areas and activities, in an inefficient way, will always need a titanic tax volume, financed from the citizens own pockets (while generating systemic corruption as a lateral effect).

A country going poorer and poorer...

This article from Anibal Cavaco Silva (former President and Prime-Minister of Portugal) is tremendously clear and fact-based. So much that is actually hurts. it physically hurts me. Honestly. It also has the terrible advantage of "calling the spade a spade". It is que equivalent to a truckload of realism. And if someone doesn't like this article, then it should work hard to change reality - because this article is just describing it.

Zombies

A good article from Carlos Guimarães Pinto (in Portuguese) about the importance of bankruptcies for economies. 

Danger

The greatest risk of a subsidized economy comes from a discrepancy on horizons. The benefits happen on the short term, but the problems only happen (and are visible and quantifiable) on the long run.

Scent

There is a little breeze in the air. Some freshness. Kind of the hint of a scent of change. And it feels good.

https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/27/politica/editorial/democracia-portuguesa-viva-1978879?ref=hp&cx=stories_cover__breaking_a--507490

This is going really well, Brexit

The news of fuel and goods shortage, lack of medical personnel, a slight feeling of loss in the air - Brexit is going really well. And it just shows how complex the world is today, how interconnected it is, how liberal politics create wealth and how trying to rule in harshly on that liberalism and globalism simply destroys value for the common citizen.

A path to hedonism

A study pre-published today in the Lancet is quite worrying. It is about the disappointment and concern young people feel about climate change. It is quite dark (understandably). But it was Publico's headline (linked above) that caught my attention: over half of the young people inquired believes the world is doomed.

Now, that is worrying on itself, and it shows how much we have failed the next generations. But it opens a path that is even darker. If the World is doomed whatever we do, then maybe it would be better to live it to the max, without any concerns on saving it. It won't be any action I do that turns things better or worse, so, let me just live it while I am here and it still exists.

The fact many of these young persons don't want to have kids both highlights and heightens this dark path. Without a commitment to a future generation, then there is no future reward for the good I do now, no will to compromise on immediate pleasures now.

And this dark path frightens me.

An amazing speech by George W Bush

Thank you, my friend, for your powerful and much-needed words on this difficult day. https://t.co/N2XhRMGKV4

— Bill Clinton (@BillClinton) September 12, 2021

Goodbye, Mr President

Jorge Sampaio, my idol as a President of the Portuguese Republic, died today. May he rest in peace.

https://www.publico.pt/jorge-sampaio

 

Carl Sagan, 1995

 

pic.twitter.com/bIkMDdYDN0

— Milo Jones (@Inveniam) September 8, 2021

Savings - by Atif Mian

 "We all know what it is at a personal level: I get 100$ check and might save 20$ out of it

But what is savings in the aggregate? Say for the world as a whole? That's where it gets tricky. e.g. people talk about a "global saving glut". But can we measure it?

Not really - at least not in a direct sense The reason is that when a person (say Adam) "saves", someone else (say Eve) uses that saving, i.e. "dissaves", by borrowing it and spending it for one purpose or another So, aggregate total saving is always exactly zero!"

There is then an accounting convention that states that "savings = investment"

Democracy's lone hero

"Any person that comes out as God's Gift to a nation is bad for Democracy. Democracy is saved together, by a group, never by a single person" - Gouveia e Melo

António Barreto

 

Goste-se ou despreze-se, a lucidez de António Barreto é inegável.

O balanço de 🇵🇹 em democracia: pic.twitter.com/8kYZMBRs3A

— Embaixador da Noção (@EmbaixadorN) August 24, 2021

Afghanistan

Most people criticizes Joe Biden. But what strategic advantages could the US get from staying in Afghanistan? Throwing huge amounts of precious resources to keep an unsustainable position (and extremely fragile Afghan governmental institutions)? Better to retreat, assume losses and refocus. That is actually true leadership. Let's not forget US' true test is not on Afghanistan, but considerably more to the East...

A tweet from Ian Bremmer on climate change

 "I think holding warming to 2 or 2.5C is unlikely, and we're likely to hit 3.5C, because I'm a political scientist, looking at responses of countries around the world.

China & India are trying to catch up to our living standards."

Ian Bremmer

Different

Most Portuguese have a really hard time distinguishing between Government, State and Country, and that is at the root of a Constitutional Democracy. It is like living permanently on a XVIIIth century absolutist country - but on the XXIst one. 

Social Media

To have conversations (even through Twitter) with intelligent people that have different opinions, helps me to have better, clearer, more structured ideas. Thank you.

Refreshing news coming from Singapore

Singapore is presenting a path to a new normal, in which Covid19 is not an exceptional pandemic, but a regular highly infectious disease. This paper provides a way through to the future - and will be an inspiration and a debatable theme in the months to come. We need our lives back.

All eyes are on the inflation rate

Two very good articles (in Portuguese) in Publico, about the inflation surge that is starting to creep in our economies:

- a very good interview with Ricardo Reis, a Portuguese economist;

- a status article on EU and US.

Brazil 2021

Brazil's main problem is not Bolsonaro. Nor Lula. Brazil's main problem is a society that positions itself to only choose between Bolsonaro or Lula. 

Tragic

 António Costa's beggar attitude, asking for the EU Commission funds for Covid19 recovery is symptomatic. This text from (in Portuguese) from João Miguel Tavares explain it terribly well. 

Five Lessons from History - Morgan Housel

 This is a great blog post about lessons from History - I recommend reading it.

The five key lessons, as Morgan Housel highlights them are:

- "People suffering from sudden, unexpected hardship are likely to adopt views they previously thought unthinkable";

- "Reversion to the mean occurs because people persuasive enough to make something grow don't have the kind of personalities that allow them to stop before pushing too far"

- "Unsustainable things can last longer than you anticipate"

- "Progress happens too slowly for people to notice; setbacks happen too fast for people to ignore"

- "Wounds heal, scars last"

Green belt and road

Great FT article on the new G7 initiative - the "green belt and road", to support environmental change (and one more thing).

On Meritocracy

This is a very relevant blogpost about an upcoming book. It debates the idea that meritocracy is at the heart of prosperity and economic growth - even more than democracy. It also leaves a few cautionary notes to the Western world. A really good read.

Portuguese Digital Era Human Rights Charter

A good read (in Portuguese) about the Portuguese Digital Era Human Rights Charter and the dangers it entails.

There it comes

 With the pandemic, huge amounts of cash have been (are being) printed. A necessary tool to help fight recession, keep jobs and the economy afloat. But there it comes the price to pay - inflation has not been so high since 2008. 3.3% em Abril, nos países da OCDE.

EU tax benefit

Is there a study showing what is the benefit of an euro paid in tax in the European Union? Meaning... what is the benefit it creates socially and economically vs the benefit of staying in the taxpayers' pockets?

Public-Private partnerships

This month, the Portuguese Court of Audits (Tribunal de Contas) published a report on the impact of Public-Private Partnerships in Health services in Portugal. The verdict is overwhelming: these partnerships represent good value for money for the Portuguese taxpayer, generating substantial savings (over €200M over 5 years) and better service for Portuguese citizens. These partnerships are more efficient and have better performance on the quality, efficacy and access KPIs. Quality standards are also above those in the Portuguese NHS. 

One of the most important graphs of the latest years

This graph shows how economic growth decoupled from green house gas emissions in a number of economies (including Europeans and the US). It shows, beyond doubt, that economic growth and GHG reduction at the same time are possible. As it will need to be in the future.

An image of how bad the pandemic has been in Portugal

 

Genetics lottery

Covid19 vaccination is crucial. But we are living right now a "genetics lottery" that will affect it. As the virus spreads and takes root in hundreds of million of people around the world, it mutates. This is a normal and expected process. Those mutations will result in variants. And variants can be more or less aggressive for the human being. At the same time these variations occur, they also compete between themselves - for dominance of the habitat they are spreading on. And that is the human species (and probably a few more as well).

Now, we can't determine which variants will endure for a few days, become extinct or dominant. But these mutations mean risk. Because there is the probability (High? Low? No idea...) that a significantly different and more aggressive variant of Covid19 takes root and becomes dominant (or near-dominant) - one that is sufficiently different from the original ones so that it takes a significant toll in the immunization ability of currently available vaccines. And so, to render them less efficient - and a less powerful weapon in fighting and containing the virus.

It must be said that 90% efficacy from some of those vaccines is an amazing figure. And one that builds confidence on their ability to still fight the virus, even if some of their efficacy is lost (a vaccine is considered a top performer if it provides 70%+ of immunization) - there is a "cushion", so to say. 

But the risk is still there. And it probably is what prompted the late messages for the UK scientific body (warning that British should not go on holidays abroad this summer, even if vaccinated) and Dr Faucci (vaccinated, but still wearing double-masks). All in all, this risk means that even with the vaccines, there is a high probability that the Covid19 pandemic and crisis will not stop in 2021 - but will endure at least throughout the 2022 winter. Fingers crossed it won't.

Now, let me just say something else. The opposite (positive) risk also exists. That in this genetics lottery, a different, less aggressive (for the human body) variant prevails - and that would be amazing news.

Where Europe went wrong in its vaccine rollout and why - an article from the New York Times

 I think this is a very good article and summary of what happened.

Food price's inflation

 Climate Change + Pandemic related Supply Chain disruptions + massive money supply influx => food prices are soaring. Let's watch carefully where this is heading.

Ronald Reagan

"A communist is someone who reads Marx and Lenin. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx and Lenin." - Ronald Reagan

Lockdown ending in Portugal

There is a clear risk when lockdown ends in Portugal. Apart from a below standard vaccination campaign (less than 10% of people received the first shot), nothing has been done - we still don't have contract tracing working efficiently, we still don't know the source of 84% of covid19 cases, the app is not working effectively. So, when Portugal unlocks... the risk of a new pandemic wave in the country is quite high.

The mental health toll on teenagers

The pandemic and the lockdown are an explosive cocktail for mental health - especially when we are talking about brains and personalities that are in an accelerated development stage, where stimuli and socialization are (even more) key for happiness.

Publico published a great article about the mental health toll this past year is taking on children and teenagers in Portugal.

Simply terrifying

 

Covid 19 vaccination progress

February 17th. 3.3% of the Portuguese population has received at least one shot of covid-19 vaccine. Too low. (albeit aligned with the 3.2% of the UE average).

Source: OurWorldinData

A friend

A good friend of mine. Owns a modern and small, but successful restaurant chain in Southeastern Asia. The concept would be very relevant in Portugal - and different from what we can currently find. It would probably be a success. As he s Portuguese, he started looking for options and opportunities to establish a branch in Portugal. 12 months of watching how the Portuguese Government handles the pandemic were enough for him to decide that the bureaucracy, inefficiency and risk were too high - he gave up. He might keep his expansion plans in SEA and maybe Spain - but not Portugal.

And this is just an example - I guess there will be several others, across industry. Very high taxes funding inefficiency - too high a risk for entrepreneurs. 

70%

The question nobody is answering: inoculating 70% of the population until Autumn - is that enough to guarantee a normal Summer, in a country that is so dependent of seasonal tourism?

Acceleration

 Digital acceleration enhanced by covid19. A chart from McKinsey.

4 urgent actions

Portugal is shoulder deep on the pandemic. Our economy is dying, we are locked at home and we are the worst country in the world in terms of infection and covid-deaths per million inhabitant. It is a complete disaster - people are dying (literally) in throves and the national health system has collapsed. Medical teams (doctors, nurses, hospital directors) are doing an amazing work, but are exhausted vs the tsunami we are dealing with.

I have been quite vocal about the mistakes that led to this - as I believe they are mostly structural. Now, sometimes people tell me "ok, you have your own view on what Portugal should have done, but what about now - what could be done right now?". Let me give you my view:

- First of all, lets be clear. A lockdown is not a strategy. It is not a solution. It is a very necessary tactic, a hand break that offers a temporary solution to the pandemic lack of control. But as soon as you lift it, the infection numbers start climbing again. So, the lockdown buys you time - much needed time. But then you need to put in place the tools that do the sustainable work.

On these, I think we should be implementing four measures (one of them is already in place, but I will mention it nonetheless):

1) StayAway Covid is a smartphone app that was released in late Q3 2020. We can say many things about it - namely that it only works in smartphones with a kind of latest operating system. But the truth is the app is safe from a personal data perspective (it was designed to keep the user and interactions anonymous) - and that has been the center of discussion when it was released. I believe (looking at the Asian democracies examples) that this app should be compulsory (for everyone carrying a smartphone at least - and this will be the majority of the population) and automatic (when a person receives a PCR test positive result, the code should be automatic, within the test result). It would have a very strong effect in terms of contact tracing and information. One of the problems we currently have is that we don't know where 87% of the cases come from - that means decision-making is flying half blind and many of our current problems come from this;

2) We need to invest strongly in contact tracing. Portugal currently has many job openings in this area (and they don't pay that bad, for the Portuguese context), but most of them remain open and are not fulfilled. We also demand a Health related diploma for people applying to these positions - and that is probably part of the problem. Now, contact tracing is a very effective tool if it is done fast enough to prevent escalation of individual cases (as we can see from Asia and some European countries) - but you need to have a dedicated work force for that. I think we should change the requirements and employ private call centers to do this. Probably that means to change the contact protocol, and move it to a two tier if needed, with one tier of generic contact (done by private call centers) and a second one, when needed, done by health professionals.

3) When the current infection figures start subsidizing, start a mass trial event - test all the Portuguese population in a few days (2, 3, 4, 5?). All positive results need to stay at home for 2 weeks. This would help us to jump start de-lockdown on a scientific and figure-based approach

4) Control the import of positive cases- meaning, impose Australian like measures to people visiting the country until we can say we have the pandemic under control. This measure is currently in place, but we need to enforce it for the next few months - and if herd immunity has not been achieved within the risk-community of the country by that time, it means the measures should extend to summer months.

This is my view and proposals. Stay safe!

Product

Yesterday was the day thousands of persons learnt that the sentence "if you don't pay a dime for something, it means you are the product and not the customer" also applies to finance trading. I don't think free trading platforms like Robin Hood can survive after this blow, when they shut down their "customers" on request from hedge funds. It will still be a great movie, though.

Milton Friedman - Stimulus and Inflation

A classic I hope not to get back. But that we all should have on the back (the front?) of our mind, as every central bank in the world is printing money to sustain the pandemic-hit economies. Fingers crossed everyone knows what they are doing.

Arnie

 https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1348249481284874240?s=20

And still democracy endured

We have all seen the terrible images for the US Capitol these past 2 days. This was a turbulent mob trying to stage a coup d'etat, that ultimately failed - and we have seen disturbing images and facts we never thought possible. But still, as this article in CNN.com states, democracy endured - and that is quite something.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/opinions/america-saved-by-democracy-paton-walsh/index.html