Will the Spanish Government limit the bailout to the banks needs or will it also need money to finance the autonomic regions, like Catalunya and Valencia? This will have a direct impact in the consolidation measures that will be needed and thus on the shock the economy will suffer...
Saturday, 9 June 2012
Monday, 4 June 2012
Latest troika feedback on Portuguese evolution
It is generally a good one - reforms are on the right track, budget consolidation seems to be moving strong and sovereign budget targets though tough are achievable and higher than expected growth is possible. Which, when you look at how tough and difficult is the program, is actually good news. And it provides an intermediate feedback to a medium term goal - this program will only produce real effects 3 years after being launched, so, expect some troubled times still ahead.
But there is also a very fair warning - unemployment levels are too high. Which means (opposite what many people are saying) that the job market needs to become more flexible. And that active policies for employment (and stimulate growth on the strategic areas of the economy) need to be put in place - the only problem is that we are still to identify those areas...
Sunday, 3 June 2012
Europe needs further integration
Europe needs to strengthen the robustness of its model - and that means to actually reinforce integration. To build more muscle and minimise internal assimetries (that will always exist), but also to build a more solid growth strategy and enhance each country's sustainable advantages. So, I think a step towards deeper sovereign budget integration is a good one, but I don't think that is enough - Europe's problem is also growth, and we need to address it urgently.
Friday, 1 June 2012
Statute of limitations and corruption
Given the fact that corruption is a serious crime that actually has a negative impact in the whole people of a country (specially when its widespread, as we see in countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy), does it make sense that statute of limitations apply to it? So, does it make sense (given the high negative impact and the damage it inflicts to public finance, country economy, Rule of Law and morals) that these crimes are not punishable after a specific amount of time? My opinion is "no" - these crimes should always be punishable.
That is my view point as well
I agree with Jorge Sampaio (former Portugal's President and current UN's High Representative for the Alliance of Civilizations), on that the current degradation of economical situation in Europe might have very dangerous consequences at social and political level on the short and medium term. Europe has very high standards in terms of protection of individual rights, tolerance, social support and the fact we are facing tensions in terms of economical development and on how to finance our social models might have dire consequences. Let's make it change for the best!
Thursday, 31 May 2012
Draghi is right
The European Union needs to clarify its vision of the Euro:
- what will be its role and strong points
- what will be the monetary and European tax policies behind it
- what will be the governance model behind it
- what will be the shape of the Eurozone and the role of each of its states
Without this, the Euro will be doomed to fail - because nobody will understand what is it for...
http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/presidente-do-bce-pede-aos-responsaveis-europeus-clarificacao-do-futuro-do-euro-1548328
- what will be its role and strong points
- what will be the monetary and European tax policies behind it
- what will be the governance model behind it
- what will be the shape of the Eurozone and the role of each of its states
Without this, the Euro will be doomed to fail - because nobody will understand what is it for...
http://economia.publico.pt/Noticia/presidente-do-bce-pede-aos-responsaveis-europeus-clarificacao-do-futuro-do-euro-1548328
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
Transport Tycoon?
In Portugal ,
the transport sector is dominated by the State, who owns the only infrastructure
railroad company, the only railroad transport company, the major bus companies
operating in the major cities, the metro systems, the boat transport in Lisbon , the major
airline,… Except for TAP (the airline) that has been worked on to be privatised
and that is efficient (far from a good example, but a fair one,
never-the-less), all of them are crippled by strategic indefinition, lack of
sustainable business models, being a pawn in political games, politically based
management teams, unproductive unions, and the list goes on and on… This
perfect storm of indefinition has actually driven these companies to be
numerous and incredibly inefficient, sinking them into heavy debt – that has to
be supported by the State (aka the taxpayers, aka all of us). It is thus urgent
for the State to actually start the redefinition of its presence in the
transport sector, merging companies, terminating others, streamlining its
structures, putting professional and capable managers running them,
liberalising prices. And, actually, understanding what role it wants to play in
the transport area – which for me, seems quite clear: the State should not own
any operator, but should consider staying in the infrastructure area. Those are
my 2 cents on the State as a transport tycoon in Portugal .
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