Leveza e preocupação

O Ministro das Finanças português comunicou ontem que o défice orçamental será superior a 8% no exercício de 2009. Se a leveza com que um número desta magnitude é comunicado é preocupante, mais o é a noção da eficácia mínima da alavancagem do endividamento público - este 'fosso' orçamental, que deveria ser um acelerador do crescimento português em tempo de crise, mais não fez do que manter o decréscimo da economia portuguesa ao mesmo nível da performance de parceiros da União Europeia bem mais saudáveis. Isto, perante um autêntico 'monstro' de endividamento do Estado português que, não ignoremos, terá que ser pago no futuro (ainda na nossa geração, ou na dos nossos filhos).

O FMI e a EU têm sido muito claros no caminho que Portugal deve seguir com vista ao controlo da sua situação financeira, e ao caminho para a retoma económica - no entanto, os seus conselhos (que face à nossa situação deveriam realmente ser considerados mandatórios) têm sido continuamente ignorados, e mascarados com pequenos fait-divers.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1412279

O comportamento irracional do mercado

A very interesting Time article, about the way the market behaves. I must say it is mostly aligned with my personal thoughts - that the market is a lot less rational than economical theory states!

http://bit.ly/4HgmvG

Irish Government to cut expenditures

With a probable 12% deficit (and after several years of strong economical growth and governmental budgets surpluses) the Irish Government is set to huge central expenditures cuts, reestructuring the public administration, reducing army effectives and taking a hard stance on social benefits control. A measure many European Governments with less severe deficits but a consistent history of them should probably take.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1389120&idCanal=57

My own highway

I just traveled on a highway where I had (many times) the impression that mine was the only car on it. Which highway was this? The A8 and its extension to Aveiro (and then Oporto). With such a route being so scarsely traveled, the question is why is the Portuguese government planning to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a third highway between Lisbon and Oporto. In a 'resources famine' situation like Portugal is now enduring, this seems to be an avoidable and highly questionable investment, that is not demand driven (remember A8 is almost 'desert')...

The MBA and the Fisherman

This is a parable I have crossed with in the last few days. It is widely know, and by no way, am I the writer of it...

"A Harvard MBA was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna. The MBA complimented the fisherman on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.

The fisherman replied “only a little while”.

The MBA then asked why didn’t he stay out longer and catch more fish.

The fisherman said he had enough to support his family’s needs.

The MBA then asked, “but what do you do with the rest of your time?”
The fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my friends – I have a full and busy life.”

The MBA scoffed, “I am a Harvard MBA and could help you! You should start by fishing longer everyday. You can then sell the extra fish you catch. With the extra revenue, you can buy a bigger boat. With the extra money the larger boat will bring, you can buy a second one and a third one and so on until you have an entire fleet of trawlers. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution.

“You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and

eventually NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise.”

The fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”

To which the MBA replied, “15-20 years.”

“But what then?”

The American laughed and said that’s the best part. “When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich – you would make millions.”

“Millions.. Then what?”

The MBA said, “Then you could retire – maybe move to a small coastal village, sleep late, do a little fishing, play with your grandkids, siesta in the afternoon, stroll into the village in the evenings…”

Don't lose track...

Surprise!!

According to the Portuguese Competition Autorithy, EDP (the electrical monopolist company in Portugal) practices unfairly high prices in the energy market due to lack of competition...

A keen eye of the EU Commission

The Comission announced today that it issued formal "Excessive Deficit Procedures" against a number of EU countries that overpassed the 3% limit (namely Spain, France and Ireland). This may be understood as a signal that the Commission will keep a keen eye on this issue, despite the deflactionary pressures and the mounting crisis. Still, some caution should be used on this procedures - after all, some public investment might be benefic to counterattack this crisis.

http://economia.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1377008&idCanal=57