Wednesday 14 August 2013

This is a good figure but don't take it too positively


A 1.1% growth of GDP in Q2 vs Q1 of 2013 is a good result for the Portuguese economy and one that should fill our hearts with hope (literally). But we should not take this as a sign that everything is well:

1) GDP evolution is accurately measured only when comparing vs previous year. That means we should be comparing Q2 2013 vs Q2 2012. That is so as each Q has its own dynamics - the best example is Q3, that is impacted by summertime seasonality, which makes "product"go up (people consume more). When we look at Q2 2013 vs Q2 2012, we still got a -2% GDP evolution. And that is not positive.

2) Many of the structural reforms that Portugal needs are still to be done. Which means this positive figure is only capturing the impact of some of the measures already taken (namely in terms of... lower Labor costs, aka, lower salaries) and context (and Germany and France, two of our biggest markets, have just announced higher GDPs than expected). To make growth sustainable we need to do what I have been saying in the past 3 years (at least) - growth strategy, reduced Government weight, leaner judicial system, higher productivity.

So, lets take this figure as a recharge to our hearts, minds and hopes. And lets make sure that we do what is needed to achieve sustainable growth, and (through private investment) reduce the pornographic unemployment levels that Portugal still has.